Uncertainty quantification and propagation in the modeling of liquefiable sands

Vicente Mercado, Felipe Ochoa-Cornejo, Rodrigo Astroza, Waleed El-Sekelly, Tarek Abdoun, Cesar Pastén, Francisco Hernández

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

This paper combines data from laboratory, centrifuge testing, and numerical tools to highlight the predictive capabilities of the Bayesian method for uncertainty quantification and propagation. The Bayesian approach is employed to estimate uncertain parameters of a multi-yield constitutive model using data from cyclic-triaxial testing. Then, predictive capabilities of a finite element model in reproducing the dynamic response of a saturated sand deposit are investigated by drawing samples from the estimated posterior probability distributions of the constitutive model parameters. Variability of the predicted responses due to estimation uncertainty is evaluated. The response of centrifuge tests is used to assess the simulated responses.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)217-229
Number of pages13
JournalSoil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering
Volume123
DOIs
StatePublished - Aug 1 2019

Fingerprint

Centrifuges
Constitutive models
centrifuges
Sand
uncertainty
sand
centrifuge
Testing
Probability distributions
modeling
Dynamic response
Deposits
testing
probability distribution
Bayesian theory
dynamic response
dynamic models
Uncertainty
sampling
parameter

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Civil and Structural Engineering
  • Geotechnical Engineering and Engineering Geology
  • Soil Science

Cite this

Uncertainty quantification and propagation in the modeling of liquefiable sands. / Mercado, Vicente; Ochoa-Cornejo, Felipe; Astroza, Rodrigo; El-Sekelly, Waleed; Abdoun, Tarek; Pastén, Cesar; Hernández, Francisco.

In: Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering, Vol. 123, 01.08.2019, p. 217-229.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Mercado, V, Ochoa-Cornejo, F, Astroza, R, El-Sekelly, W, Abdoun, T, Pastén, C & Hernández, F 2019, 'Uncertainty quantification and propagation in the modeling of liquefiable sands', Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering, vol. 123, pp. 217-229. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.soildyn.2019.04.016
Mercado, Vicente ; Ochoa-Cornejo, Felipe ; Astroza, Rodrigo ; El-Sekelly, Waleed ; Abdoun, Tarek ; Pastén, Cesar ; Hernández, Francisco. / Uncertainty quantification and propagation in the modeling of liquefiable sands. In: Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering. 2019 ; Vol. 123. pp. 217-229.
@article{997a5f4a0ad84c7387e1bad9b9a73aec,
title = "Uncertainty quantification and propagation in the modeling of liquefiable sands",
abstract = "This paper combines data from laboratory, centrifuge testing, and numerical tools to highlight the predictive capabilities of the Bayesian method for uncertainty quantification and propagation. The Bayesian approach is employed to estimate uncertain parameters of a multi-yield constitutive model using data from cyclic-triaxial testing. Then, predictive capabilities of a finite element model in reproducing the dynamic response of a saturated sand deposit are investigated by drawing samples from the estimated posterior probability distributions of the constitutive model parameters. Variability of the predicted responses due to estimation uncertainty is evaluated. The response of centrifuge tests is used to assess the simulated responses.",
author = "Vicente Mercado and Felipe Ochoa-Cornejo and Rodrigo Astroza and Waleed El-Sekelly and Tarek Abdoun and Cesar Past{\'e}n and Francisco Hern{\'a}ndez",
year = "2019",
month = "8",
day = "1",
doi = "10.1016/j.soildyn.2019.04.016",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "123",
pages = "217--229",
journal = "Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering",
issn = "0267-7261",
publisher = "Elsevier BV",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Uncertainty quantification and propagation in the modeling of liquefiable sands

AU - Mercado, Vicente

AU - Ochoa-Cornejo, Felipe

AU - Astroza, Rodrigo

AU - El-Sekelly, Waleed

AU - Abdoun, Tarek

AU - Pastén, Cesar

AU - Hernández, Francisco

PY - 2019/8/1

Y1 - 2019/8/1

N2 - This paper combines data from laboratory, centrifuge testing, and numerical tools to highlight the predictive capabilities of the Bayesian method for uncertainty quantification and propagation. The Bayesian approach is employed to estimate uncertain parameters of a multi-yield constitutive model using data from cyclic-triaxial testing. Then, predictive capabilities of a finite element model in reproducing the dynamic response of a saturated sand deposit are investigated by drawing samples from the estimated posterior probability distributions of the constitutive model parameters. Variability of the predicted responses due to estimation uncertainty is evaluated. The response of centrifuge tests is used to assess the simulated responses.

AB - This paper combines data from laboratory, centrifuge testing, and numerical tools to highlight the predictive capabilities of the Bayesian method for uncertainty quantification and propagation. The Bayesian approach is employed to estimate uncertain parameters of a multi-yield constitutive model using data from cyclic-triaxial testing. Then, predictive capabilities of a finite element model in reproducing the dynamic response of a saturated sand deposit are investigated by drawing samples from the estimated posterior probability distributions of the constitutive model parameters. Variability of the predicted responses due to estimation uncertainty is evaluated. The response of centrifuge tests is used to assess the simulated responses.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85065436908&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85065436908&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1016/j.soildyn.2019.04.016

DO - 10.1016/j.soildyn.2019.04.016

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:85065436908

VL - 123

SP - 217

EP - 229

JO - Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering

JF - Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering

SN - 0267-7261

ER -