To intervene or not to intervene a biased decision

Alastair Smith

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

    Abstract

    Alliances are related to the occurence of conflict. A theoretical model predicts how alliance reliability affects the occurrence of conflict in the international system. Suppose that two nations are at war. The intervention of a third nation into this war affects the likely outcome. Nations prefer to fight wars that they expect to win. Nations are more likely to involve themselves in wars in which they anticipate allied support. Estimates of alliance reliability are obtained and used to demonstrate that nations consider alliance reliability when deciding whether to become involved in conflict. For example, nations with unreliable allies are more likely to surrender if attacked than are nations with reliable allies. Alliance reliability affects the occurrence of war. Unfortunately, whether an alliance is honored is only observable when a war actually occurs. The author discusses the sampling bias that this creates.

    Original languageEnglish (US)
    Pages (from-to)16-40
    Number of pages25
    JournalJournal of Conflict Resolution
    Volume40
    Issue number1
    StatePublished - Mar 1996

    Fingerprint

    allies
    international system
    Alliances
    trend
    Sampling

    ASJC Scopus subject areas

    • Business, Management and Accounting(all)
    • Sociology and Political Science
    • Political Science and International Relations

    Cite this

    To intervene or not to intervene a biased decision. / Smith, Alastair.

    In: Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 40, No. 1, 03.1996, p. 16-40.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

    Smith, Alastair. / To intervene or not to intervene a biased decision. In: Journal of Conflict Resolution. 1996 ; Vol. 40, No. 1. pp. 16-40.
    @article{4e6b4a9777b844228f45183094d311ad,
    title = "To intervene or not to intervene a biased decision",
    abstract = "Alliances are related to the occurence of conflict. A theoretical model predicts how alliance reliability affects the occurrence of conflict in the international system. Suppose that two nations are at war. The intervention of a third nation into this war affects the likely outcome. Nations prefer to fight wars that they expect to win. Nations are more likely to involve themselves in wars in which they anticipate allied support. Estimates of alliance reliability are obtained and used to demonstrate that nations consider alliance reliability when deciding whether to become involved in conflict. For example, nations with unreliable allies are more likely to surrender if attacked than are nations with reliable allies. Alliance reliability affects the occurrence of war. Unfortunately, whether an alliance is honored is only observable when a war actually occurs. The author discusses the sampling bias that this creates.",
    author = "Alastair Smith",
    year = "1996",
    month = "3",
    language = "English (US)",
    volume = "40",
    pages = "16--40",
    journal = "Journal of Conflict Resolution",
    issn = "0022-0027",
    publisher = "SAGE Publications Inc.",
    number = "1",

    }

    TY - JOUR

    T1 - To intervene or not to intervene a biased decision

    AU - Smith, Alastair

    PY - 1996/3

    Y1 - 1996/3

    N2 - Alliances are related to the occurence of conflict. A theoretical model predicts how alliance reliability affects the occurrence of conflict in the international system. Suppose that two nations are at war. The intervention of a third nation into this war affects the likely outcome. Nations prefer to fight wars that they expect to win. Nations are more likely to involve themselves in wars in which they anticipate allied support. Estimates of alliance reliability are obtained and used to demonstrate that nations consider alliance reliability when deciding whether to become involved in conflict. For example, nations with unreliable allies are more likely to surrender if attacked than are nations with reliable allies. Alliance reliability affects the occurrence of war. Unfortunately, whether an alliance is honored is only observable when a war actually occurs. The author discusses the sampling bias that this creates.

    AB - Alliances are related to the occurence of conflict. A theoretical model predicts how alliance reliability affects the occurrence of conflict in the international system. Suppose that two nations are at war. The intervention of a third nation into this war affects the likely outcome. Nations prefer to fight wars that they expect to win. Nations are more likely to involve themselves in wars in which they anticipate allied support. Estimates of alliance reliability are obtained and used to demonstrate that nations consider alliance reliability when deciding whether to become involved in conflict. For example, nations with unreliable allies are more likely to surrender if attacked than are nations with reliable allies. Alliance reliability affects the occurrence of war. Unfortunately, whether an alliance is honored is only observable when a war actually occurs. The author discusses the sampling bias that this creates.

    UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=0030088563&partnerID=8YFLogxK

    UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=0030088563&partnerID=8YFLogxK

    M3 - Article

    AN - SCOPUS:0030088563

    VL - 40

    SP - 16

    EP - 40

    JO - Journal of Conflict Resolution

    JF - Journal of Conflict Resolution

    SN - 0022-0027

    IS - 1

    ER -