Abstract
A theoretical analysis of the probability of nuclear war is developed that assumes a starting probability and an annual reduction factor. Whatever the starting probability is, a constant reduction factor leads to an eventual probability that is less than 1, whereas the eventual probability goes to 1 if there is no reduction or if the reduction proportion decreases at a constant rate. Numerical calculations and graphical results illustrate trade-offs between the starting probabilities and the reduction factors, demonstrating especially the significance of the latter. In addition, upper and lower limits for, and approximations of, the eventual probabilities - along with measures of the rate of convergence - are derived. The applicability of the analysis to lowering the probability of nuclear war is discussed, with particular attention paid to real-life factors that seem to affect this probability.
| Original language | English (US) |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 91-99 |
| Number of pages | 9 |
| Journal | Journal of Peace Research |
| Volume | 26 |
| Issue number | 1 |
| DOIs | |
| State | Published - 1989 |
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ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Sociology and Political Science
- Safety Research
- Political Science and International Relations
Cite this
The Probability of Nuclear War. / Avenhaus, Rudolf; Fichtner, John; Brams, Steven; Kilgour, D. Marc.
In: Journal of Peace Research, Vol. 26, No. 1, 1989, p. 91-99.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - The Probability of Nuclear War
AU - Avenhaus, Rudolf
AU - Fichtner, John
AU - Brams, Steven
AU - Kilgour, D. Marc
PY - 1989
Y1 - 1989
N2 - A theoretical analysis of the probability of nuclear war is developed that assumes a starting probability and an annual reduction factor. Whatever the starting probability is, a constant reduction factor leads to an eventual probability that is less than 1, whereas the eventual probability goes to 1 if there is no reduction or if the reduction proportion decreases at a constant rate. Numerical calculations and graphical results illustrate trade-offs between the starting probabilities and the reduction factors, demonstrating especially the significance of the latter. In addition, upper and lower limits for, and approximations of, the eventual probabilities - along with measures of the rate of convergence - are derived. The applicability of the analysis to lowering the probability of nuclear war is discussed, with particular attention paid to real-life factors that seem to affect this probability.
AB - A theoretical analysis of the probability of nuclear war is developed that assumes a starting probability and an annual reduction factor. Whatever the starting probability is, a constant reduction factor leads to an eventual probability that is less than 1, whereas the eventual probability goes to 1 if there is no reduction or if the reduction proportion decreases at a constant rate. Numerical calculations and graphical results illustrate trade-offs between the starting probabilities and the reduction factors, demonstrating especially the significance of the latter. In addition, upper and lower limits for, and approximations of, the eventual probabilities - along with measures of the rate of convergence - are derived. The applicability of the analysis to lowering the probability of nuclear war is discussed, with particular attention paid to real-life factors that seem to affect this probability.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84970491477&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=84970491477&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1177/0022343389026001009
DO - 10.1177/0022343389026001009
M3 - Article
VL - 26
SP - 91
EP - 99
JO - Journal of Peace Research
JF - Journal of Peace Research
SN - 0022-3433
IS - 1
ER -