The impact of leadership turnover on trading relations between states

Fiona McGillivray, Alastair Smith

    Research output: Contribution to journalReview article

    Abstract

    We test how domestic political institutions moderate the effect of leadership turnover on relations between states. Deriving hypotheses from recent theoretical work, Bueno de Mesquita et al. and McGillivray and Smith, we examine how leader change affects trading relations between states using dyadic trade data. Consistent with hypotheses, we find that large winning coalition systems, such as democracies, are relatively immune from the vagaries of leadership change. In such systems, trade remains relatively constant whether leader change occurs or not. In contrast, when winning coalition size is small, as in autocratic states, leadership change profoundly alters relations, causing a decline in trade. Finally, we examine instances of poor relations, measured by a significant decline in trade compared to historical levels. As predicted, instances of poor relations are less common between pairs of democracies than other dyadic pairings. Further, leadership turnover in autocratic systems restores trading relations between states. The effect of leadership change in democracies is much less pronounced.

    Original languageEnglish (US)
    JournalInternational Organization
    Volume58
    Issue number3
    DOIs
    StatePublished - Jun 2004

    Fingerprint

    leadership change
    turnover
    leadership
    democracy
    coalition
    leader
    political institution
    Turnover
    Democracy

    ASJC Scopus subject areas

    • Political Science and International Relations
    • Sociology and Political Science
    • Organizational Behavior and Human Resource Management

    Cite this

    The impact of leadership turnover on trading relations between states. / McGillivray, Fiona; Smith, Alastair.

    In: International Organization, Vol. 58, No. 3, 06.2004.

    Research output: Contribution to journalReview article

    McGillivray, Fiona ; Smith, Alastair. / The impact of leadership turnover on trading relations between states. In: International Organization. 2004 ; Vol. 58, No. 3.
    @article{61d956ddd774465cacd3ab847a6191eb,
    title = "The impact of leadership turnover on trading relations between states",
    abstract = "We test how domestic political institutions moderate the effect of leadership turnover on relations between states. Deriving hypotheses from recent theoretical work, Bueno de Mesquita et al. and McGillivray and Smith, we examine how leader change affects trading relations between states using dyadic trade data. Consistent with hypotheses, we find that large winning coalition systems, such as democracies, are relatively immune from the vagaries of leadership change. In such systems, trade remains relatively constant whether leader change occurs or not. In contrast, when winning coalition size is small, as in autocratic states, leadership change profoundly alters relations, causing a decline in trade. Finally, we examine instances of poor relations, measured by a significant decline in trade compared to historical levels. As predicted, instances of poor relations are less common between pairs of democracies than other dyadic pairings. Further, leadership turnover in autocratic systems restores trading relations between states. The effect of leadership change in democracies is much less pronounced.",
    author = "Fiona McGillivray and Alastair Smith",
    year = "2004",
    month = "6",
    doi = "10.1017/S0020818304583054",
    language = "English (US)",
    volume = "58",
    journal = "International Organization",
    issn = "0020-8183",
    publisher = "Cambridge University Press",
    number = "3",

    }

    TY - JOUR

    T1 - The impact of leadership turnover on trading relations between states

    AU - McGillivray, Fiona

    AU - Smith, Alastair

    PY - 2004/6

    Y1 - 2004/6

    N2 - We test how domestic political institutions moderate the effect of leadership turnover on relations between states. Deriving hypotheses from recent theoretical work, Bueno de Mesquita et al. and McGillivray and Smith, we examine how leader change affects trading relations between states using dyadic trade data. Consistent with hypotheses, we find that large winning coalition systems, such as democracies, are relatively immune from the vagaries of leadership change. In such systems, trade remains relatively constant whether leader change occurs or not. In contrast, when winning coalition size is small, as in autocratic states, leadership change profoundly alters relations, causing a decline in trade. Finally, we examine instances of poor relations, measured by a significant decline in trade compared to historical levels. As predicted, instances of poor relations are less common between pairs of democracies than other dyadic pairings. Further, leadership turnover in autocratic systems restores trading relations between states. The effect of leadership change in democracies is much less pronounced.

    AB - We test how domestic political institutions moderate the effect of leadership turnover on relations between states. Deriving hypotheses from recent theoretical work, Bueno de Mesquita et al. and McGillivray and Smith, we examine how leader change affects trading relations between states using dyadic trade data. Consistent with hypotheses, we find that large winning coalition systems, such as democracies, are relatively immune from the vagaries of leadership change. In such systems, trade remains relatively constant whether leader change occurs or not. In contrast, when winning coalition size is small, as in autocratic states, leadership change profoundly alters relations, causing a decline in trade. Finally, we examine instances of poor relations, measured by a significant decline in trade compared to historical levels. As predicted, instances of poor relations are less common between pairs of democracies than other dyadic pairings. Further, leadership turnover in autocratic systems restores trading relations between states. The effect of leadership change in democracies is much less pronounced.

    UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=34248055157&partnerID=8YFLogxK

    UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=34248055157&partnerID=8YFLogxK

    U2 - 10.1017/S0020818304583054

    DO - 10.1017/S0020818304583054

    M3 - Review article

    VL - 58

    JO - International Organization

    JF - International Organization

    SN - 0020-8183

    IS - 3

    ER -