Stochastic variability at the air-sea interface on decadal timescales

S. B. Power, F. Tseitkin, M. Dix, R. Kleeman, R. Colman, D. Holland

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

Multiple integrations of an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) exhibit differences in the decadal mean of the surface heat flux, Q. The differences (typically 2-3 Wm-2) can be as large as 10 Wm-2 in places, which are shown to produce sea-surface temperature (SST) changes up to approximately 0.5°C in a hybrid coupled atmosphere/ocean/sea-ice model or HCM. This underscores a significant mechanism by which long-lived SST anomalies can arise, independent of any internal ocean variability, for which there is very little predictive capability. Consequently, AGCM integrations using prescribed SSTs provide upper bounds on the predictability of atmospheric variability. The random interannual fluctuations in Q averaged over the ocean are most closely associated with fluctuations in surface latent heating and longwave radiation to space. -from Authors

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)2593-2596
Number of pages4
JournalGeophysical Research Letters
Volume22
Issue number19
DOIs
StatePublished - 1995

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Atmospheric General Circulation Models
oceans
sea surface temperature
atmospheric general circulation model
timescale
air
ocean
sea ice
longwave radiation
temperature anomaly
heat flux
anomalies
heating
atmospheres
atmosphere
radiation
sea

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous)

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Stochastic variability at the air-sea interface on decadal timescales. / Power, S. B.; Tseitkin, F.; Dix, M.; Kleeman, R.; Colman, R.; Holland, D.

In: Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 22, No. 19, 1995, p. 2593-2596.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Power, SB, Tseitkin, F, Dix, M, Kleeman, R, Colman, R & Holland, D 1995, 'Stochastic variability at the air-sea interface on decadal timescales', Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 22, no. 19, pp. 2593-2596. https://doi.org/10.1029/95GL02655
Power, S. B. ; Tseitkin, F. ; Dix, M. ; Kleeman, R. ; Colman, R. ; Holland, D. / Stochastic variability at the air-sea interface on decadal timescales. In: Geophysical Research Letters. 1995 ; Vol. 22, No. 19. pp. 2593-2596.
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