Stochastic duration modeling of pavement overlay crack initiation

Ziad S. Nakat, Samer Madanat

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

    Abstract

    In this paper we present the development of an empirical pavement overlay crack initiation model using condition survey data for the highway system in the state of Washington. We use a semiparametric Cox model and show that its hazard function represents the sample hazard function, which follows a bathtub shape. This is a shape that commonly used parametric models cannot predict. Empirical data complications, such as the endogeneity of overlay design variables and data censoring, are corrected for using appropriate econometric techniques. Our research shows that a specification that captures the main factors responsible for the overlay crack initiation process, combined with careful analysis of the data, can produce models of sufficient realism for maintenance and rehabilitation action selection purposes.

    Original languageEnglish (US)
    Pages (from-to)185-192
    Number of pages8
    JournalJournal of Infrastructure Systems
    Volume14
    Issue number3
    DOIs
    StatePublished - Sep 1 2008

    Fingerprint

    Pavement overlays
    Crack initiation
    Hazards
    Highway systems
    Patient rehabilitation
    Specifications

    Keywords

    • Cracking
    • Infrastructure
    • Maintenance
    • Pavements
    • Stochastic models

    ASJC Scopus subject areas

    • Civil and Structural Engineering

    Cite this

    Stochastic duration modeling of pavement overlay crack initiation. / Nakat, Ziad S.; Madanat, Samer.

    In: Journal of Infrastructure Systems, Vol. 14, No. 3, 01.09.2008, p. 185-192.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

    Nakat, Ziad S. ; Madanat, Samer. / Stochastic duration modeling of pavement overlay crack initiation. In: Journal of Infrastructure Systems. 2008 ; Vol. 14, No. 3. pp. 185-192.
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