Statistical backwards induction: A simple method for estimating recursive strategic models

Muhammet Bas, Curtis S. Signorino, Robert W. Walker

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

We present a simple method for estimating regressions based on recursive extensive-form games. Our procedure, which can be implemented in most standard statistical packages, involves sequentially estimating standard logits (or probits) in a manner analogous to backwards induction. We demonstrate that the technique produces consistent parameter estimates and show how to calculate consistent standard errors. To illustrate the method, we replicate Leblang's (2003) study of speculative attacks by financial markets and government responses to these attacks.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)21-40
Number of pages20
JournalPolitical Analysis
Volume16
Issue number1
DOIs
StatePublished - Dec 1 2008

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induction
financial market
regression

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Sociology and Political Science

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Statistical backwards induction : A simple method for estimating recursive strategic models. / Bas, Muhammet; Signorino, Curtis S.; Walker, Robert W.

In: Political Analysis, Vol. 16, No. 1, 01.12.2008, p. 21-40.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Bas, Muhammet ; Signorino, Curtis S. ; Walker, Robert W. / Statistical backwards induction : A simple method for estimating recursive strategic models. In: Political Analysis. 2008 ; Vol. 16, No. 1. pp. 21-40.
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