Statistical backwards induction

A simple method for estimating recursive strategic models

Muhammet Bas, Curtis S. Signorino, Robert W. Walker

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

    Abstract

    We present a simple method for estimating regressions based on recursive extensive-form games. Our procedure, which can be implemented in most standard statistical packages, involves sequentially estimating standard logits (or probits) in a manner analogous to backwards induction. We demonstrate that the technique produces consistent parameter estimates and show how to calculate consistent standard errors. To illustrate the method, we replicate Leblang's (2003) study of speculative attacks by financial markets and government responses to these attacks.

    Original languageEnglish (US)
    Pages (from-to)21-40
    Number of pages20
    JournalPolitical Analysis
    Volume16
    Issue number1
    DOIs
    StatePublished - Dec 1 2008

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    induction
    financial market
    regression

    ASJC Scopus subject areas

    • Sociology and Political Science

    Cite this

    Statistical backwards induction : A simple method for estimating recursive strategic models. / Bas, Muhammet; Signorino, Curtis S.; Walker, Robert W.

    In: Political Analysis, Vol. 16, No. 1, 01.12.2008, p. 21-40.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

    Bas, Muhammet ; Signorino, Curtis S. ; Walker, Robert W. / Statistical backwards induction : A simple method for estimating recursive strategic models. In: Political Analysis. 2008 ; Vol. 16, No. 1. pp. 21-40.
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