Statistical backwards induction: A simple method for estimating recursive strategic models

Muhammet Ali Bas, Curtis S. Signorino, Robert W. Walker

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle


We present a simple method for estimating regressions based on recursive extensive-form games. Our procedure, which can be implemented in most standard statistical packages, involves sequentially estimating standard logits (or probits) in a manner analogous to backwards induction. We demonstrate that the technique produces consistent parameter estimates and show how to calculate consistent standard errors. To illustrate the method, we replicate Leblang's (2003) study of speculative attacks by financial markets and government responses to these attacks.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)21-40
Number of pages20
JournalPolitical Analysis
Issue number1
StatePublished - Dec 1 2008


ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Sociology and Political Science
  • Political Science and International Relations

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