Semiparametric hazard rate models of reinforced concrete bridge deck deterioration

M. Mauch, Samer Madanat

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

    Abstract

    The development of models to predict the distribution of times between changes in condition-state for reinforced concrete bridge decks is presented in this paper. The authors used semiparametric hazard rate modeling techniques to develop stochastic duration models for bridge decks in the Indiana Bridge Inventory database. The advantage of semiparametric methods is that they do not constrain the hazard rate to follow a prespecified probability density function. This approach is flexible enough to accommodate different types of deterioration processes, and can account properly for both censored and uncensored data. Furthermore, it relates observed deterioration to relevant explanatory variables. Finally, because this approach quantifies the time-dependent hazard rate function, it facilitates the computation of time-dependent transition probabilities for use in bridge management systems. The models presented in this paper are characterized by realistic trends. The estimated parameters are statistically significant and have, for the most part, intuitively correct signs. However, the models include only a small number of explanatory variables, and thus do not capture the entire array of relevant factors that contribute to bridge deck deterioration. This is especially true when they are compared to the state-based models obtained in earlier research using the same data. The reason are that the deck conditions are observed at infrequent points in time (every 2 years) and that the window of observation is relatively short (10 years).

    Original languageEnglish (US)
    Pages (from-to)49-57
    Number of pages9
    JournalJournal of Infrastructure Systems
    Volume7
    Issue number2
    DOIs
    StatePublished - Jun 1 2001

    Fingerprint

    Bridge decks
    Concrete bridges
    reinforced concrete
    Deterioration
    Reinforced concrete
    Hazards
    hazard
    probability density function
    Probability density function
    rate
    time
    trend
    management
    modeling

    ASJC Scopus subject areas

    • Transportation
    • Ocean Engineering
    • Water Science and Technology

    Cite this

    Semiparametric hazard rate models of reinforced concrete bridge deck deterioration. / Mauch, M.; Madanat, Samer.

    In: Journal of Infrastructure Systems, Vol. 7, No. 2, 01.06.2001, p. 49-57.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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