Risk based staged evacuation planning

J. Li, Kaan Ozbay

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Abstract

Determination of an optimal departure schedule is the key issue for a successful staged emergency evacuation for reducing unnecessary network congestion and decreasing the evacuation clearance time. However, flow-related stochastic events, such accidents and short-term traffic breakdowns, bring numerous challenges for developing a reliable evacuation plan with an optimal departure schedule. In order to assist the decision makers for evaluating potential planning risks, this study proposes a modeling framework and a corresponding solution approach that incorporates flow-related accidents and breakdowns into a staged emergency evacuation model. A bi-level stochastic programming problem is formulated. In the upper level, we introduce planning risk by using Mean-Mean Absolute Deviation (Mean-MAD), which is a common measure employed for risk-averse planning. In the lower level, System Optimum Dynamic Traffic Assignment (SO-DTA) formulation, proposed in [16], is modified as a tool for quantifying the performance of the proposed multistage stochastic traffic assignment approach. The applicability of the proposed framework and solution approach is illustrated by a numerical example designed to depict salient features of the proposed risk-based planning methodology.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publication2011 14th International IEEE Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems, ITSC 2011
Pages2021-2026
Number of pages6
DOIs
StatePublished - 2011
Event14th IEEE International Intelligent Transportation Systems Conference, ITSC 2011 - Washington, DC, United States
Duration: Oct 5 2011Oct 7 2011

Other

Other14th IEEE International Intelligent Transportation Systems Conference, ITSC 2011
CountryUnited States
CityWashington, DC
Period10/5/1110/7/11

Fingerprint

Planning
Accidents
Stochastic programming

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Automotive Engineering
  • Mechanical Engineering
  • Computer Science Applications

Cite this

Li, J., & Ozbay, K. (2011). Risk based staged evacuation planning. In 2011 14th International IEEE Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems, ITSC 2011 (pp. 2021-2026). [6082993] https://doi.org/10.1109/ITSC.2011.6082993

Risk based staged evacuation planning. / Li, J.; Ozbay, Kaan.

2011 14th International IEEE Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems, ITSC 2011. 2011. p. 2021-2026 6082993.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Li, J & Ozbay, K 2011, Risk based staged evacuation planning. in 2011 14th International IEEE Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems, ITSC 2011., 6082993, pp. 2021-2026, 14th IEEE International Intelligent Transportation Systems Conference, ITSC 2011, Washington, DC, United States, 10/5/11. https://doi.org/10.1109/ITSC.2011.6082993
Li J, Ozbay K. Risk based staged evacuation planning. In 2011 14th International IEEE Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems, ITSC 2011. 2011. p. 2021-2026. 6082993 https://doi.org/10.1109/ITSC.2011.6082993
Li, J. ; Ozbay, Kaan. / Risk based staged evacuation planning. 2011 14th International IEEE Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems, ITSC 2011. 2011. pp. 2021-2026
@inproceedings{6fd4e0699efb4384a5693d0fd25d68a6,
title = "Risk based staged evacuation planning",
abstract = "Determination of an optimal departure schedule is the key issue for a successful staged emergency evacuation for reducing unnecessary network congestion and decreasing the evacuation clearance time. However, flow-related stochastic events, such accidents and short-term traffic breakdowns, bring numerous challenges for developing a reliable evacuation plan with an optimal departure schedule. In order to assist the decision makers for evaluating potential planning risks, this study proposes a modeling framework and a corresponding solution approach that incorporates flow-related accidents and breakdowns into a staged emergency evacuation model. A bi-level stochastic programming problem is formulated. In the upper level, we introduce planning risk by using Mean-Mean Absolute Deviation (Mean-MAD), which is a common measure employed for risk-averse planning. In the lower level, System Optimum Dynamic Traffic Assignment (SO-DTA) formulation, proposed in [16], is modified as a tool for quantifying the performance of the proposed multistage stochastic traffic assignment approach. The applicability of the proposed framework and solution approach is illustrated by a numerical example designed to depict salient features of the proposed risk-based planning methodology.",
author = "J. Li and Kaan Ozbay",
year = "2011",
doi = "10.1109/ITSC.2011.6082993",
language = "English (US)",
isbn = "9781457721984",
pages = "2021--2026",
booktitle = "2011 14th International IEEE Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems, ITSC 2011",

}

TY - GEN

T1 - Risk based staged evacuation planning

AU - Li, J.

AU - Ozbay, Kaan

PY - 2011

Y1 - 2011

N2 - Determination of an optimal departure schedule is the key issue for a successful staged emergency evacuation for reducing unnecessary network congestion and decreasing the evacuation clearance time. However, flow-related stochastic events, such accidents and short-term traffic breakdowns, bring numerous challenges for developing a reliable evacuation plan with an optimal departure schedule. In order to assist the decision makers for evaluating potential planning risks, this study proposes a modeling framework and a corresponding solution approach that incorporates flow-related accidents and breakdowns into a staged emergency evacuation model. A bi-level stochastic programming problem is formulated. In the upper level, we introduce planning risk by using Mean-Mean Absolute Deviation (Mean-MAD), which is a common measure employed for risk-averse planning. In the lower level, System Optimum Dynamic Traffic Assignment (SO-DTA) formulation, proposed in [16], is modified as a tool for quantifying the performance of the proposed multistage stochastic traffic assignment approach. The applicability of the proposed framework and solution approach is illustrated by a numerical example designed to depict salient features of the proposed risk-based planning methodology.

AB - Determination of an optimal departure schedule is the key issue for a successful staged emergency evacuation for reducing unnecessary network congestion and decreasing the evacuation clearance time. However, flow-related stochastic events, such accidents and short-term traffic breakdowns, bring numerous challenges for developing a reliable evacuation plan with an optimal departure schedule. In order to assist the decision makers for evaluating potential planning risks, this study proposes a modeling framework and a corresponding solution approach that incorporates flow-related accidents and breakdowns into a staged emergency evacuation model. A bi-level stochastic programming problem is formulated. In the upper level, we introduce planning risk by using Mean-Mean Absolute Deviation (Mean-MAD), which is a common measure employed for risk-averse planning. In the lower level, System Optimum Dynamic Traffic Assignment (SO-DTA) formulation, proposed in [16], is modified as a tool for quantifying the performance of the proposed multistage stochastic traffic assignment approach. The applicability of the proposed framework and solution approach is illustrated by a numerical example designed to depict salient features of the proposed risk-based planning methodology.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=83755196428&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=83755196428&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1109/ITSC.2011.6082993

DO - 10.1109/ITSC.2011.6082993

M3 - Conference contribution

SN - 9781457721984

SP - 2021

EP - 2026

BT - 2011 14th International IEEE Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems, ITSC 2011

ER -