Re-examining economic shocks and civil conflict

Edward Miguel, Shanker Satyanath

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

    Abstract

    Miguel, Satyanath, and Ernest Sergenti (2004), henceforth MSS, show that economic growth is negatively related to civil conflict in Africa, using annual rainfall variation as an IV for growth. Antonio Ciccone (2011) argues that thanks to rainfall's mean-reverting nature, rainfall levels are preferable to annual changes. We make three points. First, MSS's findings hold using rainfall levels as instruments. Second, Ciccone (2011) does not provide theoretical justification for preferring rainfall levels. Third, the first-stage relationship between rainfall and growth is weaker after 2000, suggesting that alternative instruments are needed when studying recent conflicts. We highlight the accumulating microeconomic evidence that adverse economic shocks lead to political violence.

    Original languageEnglish (US)
    Pages (from-to)228-232
    Number of pages5
    JournalAmerican Economic Journal: Applied Economics
    Volume3
    Issue number4
    DOIs
    StatePublished - Oct 2011

    Fingerprint

    Economic shocks
    Civil conflict
    Rainfall
    Economic growth
    Microeconomics
    Africa
    Justification
    Political violence
    Mean-reverting

    ASJC Scopus subject areas

    • Economics, Econometrics and Finance(all)

    Cite this

    Re-examining economic shocks and civil conflict. / Miguel, Edward; Satyanath, Shanker.

    In: American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, Vol. 3, No. 4, 10.2011, p. 228-232.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

    Miguel, Edward ; Satyanath, Shanker. / Re-examining economic shocks and civil conflict. In: American Economic Journal: Applied Economics. 2011 ; Vol. 3, No. 4. pp. 228-232.
    @article{426d36f35d2e498f8e07dadb83120595,
    title = "Re-examining economic shocks and civil conflict",
    abstract = "Miguel, Satyanath, and Ernest Sergenti (2004), henceforth MSS, show that economic growth is negatively related to civil conflict in Africa, using annual rainfall variation as an IV for growth. Antonio Ciccone (2011) argues that thanks to rainfall's mean-reverting nature, rainfall levels are preferable to annual changes. We make three points. First, MSS's findings hold using rainfall levels as instruments. Second, Ciccone (2011) does not provide theoretical justification for preferring rainfall levels. Third, the first-stage relationship between rainfall and growth is weaker after 2000, suggesting that alternative instruments are needed when studying recent conflicts. We highlight the accumulating microeconomic evidence that adverse economic shocks lead to political violence.",
    author = "Edward Miguel and Shanker Satyanath",
    year = "2011",
    month = "10",
    doi = "10.1257/app.3.4.228",
    language = "English (US)",
    volume = "3",
    pages = "228--232",
    journal = "American Economic Journal: Applied Economics",
    issn = "1945-7782",
    publisher = "American Economic Association",
    number = "4",

    }

    TY - JOUR

    T1 - Re-examining economic shocks and civil conflict

    AU - Miguel, Edward

    AU - Satyanath, Shanker

    PY - 2011/10

    Y1 - 2011/10

    N2 - Miguel, Satyanath, and Ernest Sergenti (2004), henceforth MSS, show that economic growth is negatively related to civil conflict in Africa, using annual rainfall variation as an IV for growth. Antonio Ciccone (2011) argues that thanks to rainfall's mean-reverting nature, rainfall levels are preferable to annual changes. We make three points. First, MSS's findings hold using rainfall levels as instruments. Second, Ciccone (2011) does not provide theoretical justification for preferring rainfall levels. Third, the first-stage relationship between rainfall and growth is weaker after 2000, suggesting that alternative instruments are needed when studying recent conflicts. We highlight the accumulating microeconomic evidence that adverse economic shocks lead to political violence.

    AB - Miguel, Satyanath, and Ernest Sergenti (2004), henceforth MSS, show that economic growth is negatively related to civil conflict in Africa, using annual rainfall variation as an IV for growth. Antonio Ciccone (2011) argues that thanks to rainfall's mean-reverting nature, rainfall levels are preferable to annual changes. We make three points. First, MSS's findings hold using rainfall levels as instruments. Second, Ciccone (2011) does not provide theoretical justification for preferring rainfall levels. Third, the first-stage relationship between rainfall and growth is weaker after 2000, suggesting that alternative instruments are needed when studying recent conflicts. We highlight the accumulating microeconomic evidence that adverse economic shocks lead to political violence.

    UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=80053992969&partnerID=8YFLogxK

    UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=80053992969&partnerID=8YFLogxK

    U2 - 10.1257/app.3.4.228

    DO - 10.1257/app.3.4.228

    M3 - Article

    AN - SCOPUS:80053992969

    VL - 3

    SP - 228

    EP - 232

    JO - American Economic Journal: Applied Economics

    JF - American Economic Journal: Applied Economics

    SN - 1945-7782

    IS - 4

    ER -