Race-based neighbourhood projection: A proposed framework for understanding new data on racial integration

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

This paper outlines the race-based, neighbourhood projection hypothesis which holds that, in choosing neighbourhoods, households care less about present racial composition than they do about expectations about future neighbourhood conditions, such as school quality, property values and crime. Race remains relevant, however, since households tend to associate a growing minority presence with structural decline. Using a unique data-set that links households to their neighbourhoods, this paper estimates both exit and entry models and then constructs a simple simulation model that predicts the course of racial change in different communities. Doing so, the paper concludes that the empirical evidence is more consistent with the race-based projection hypothesis than with other common explanations for neighbourhood racial transition.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)1513-1533
Number of pages21
JournalUrban Studies
Volume37
Issue number9
StatePublished - 2000

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projection
future expectation
crime
simulation model
minority
offense
present
school
community
simulation
evidence
household

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Environmental Science (miscellaneous)
  • Urban Studies

Cite this

Race-based neighbourhood projection : A proposed framework for understanding new data on racial integration. / Ellen, I. G.

In: Urban Studies, Vol. 37, No. 9, 2000, p. 1513-1533.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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