Prediction of behavior from beliefs

An extension and test of a subjective probability model

James Jaccard, Richard Knox, David Brinberg

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

Tested a model for the prediction of behavior from beliefs in the context of voting behavior in the 1976 presidential election. A 2-wave panel design was used in a field survey in which voting behavior was predicted from beliefs about candidates in accord with a recent subjective probability model. Ss were 119 23-56 yr old Democrats, Republicans, and independents. Results support the model, yielding an average correlation between predicted and obtained voting behavior of .75. The average correlation between predicted and obtained voting intention was .84. The ability of the model to predict behavior and behavioral intentions was relatively unaffected by the educational level of the respondent and the type of beliefs under consideration. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2006 APA, all rights reserved).

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)1239-1248
Number of pages10
JournalJournal of Personality and Social Psychology
Volume37
Issue number7
DOIs
StatePublished - Jan 1 1979

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voting behavior
Politics
presidential election
Aptitude
voting
candidacy
ability
Surveys and Questionnaires

Keywords

  • correlation between predicted &
  • intentions
  • obtained voting behavior, 23-56 yr old Democrats vs Republicans vs independents, implications for prediction of behavior from beliefs &

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Social Psychology
  • Sociology and Political Science

Cite this

Prediction of behavior from beliefs : An extension and test of a subjective probability model. / Jaccard, James; Knox, Richard; Brinberg, David.

In: Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, Vol. 37, No. 7, 01.01.1979, p. 1239-1248.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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