Predicting who will use intensive social care

Case finding tools based on linked health and social care data

Martin Bardsley, John Billings, Jennifer Dixon, Theo Georghiou, Geraint Hywel Lewis, Adam Steventon

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

Background: the costs of delivering health and social care services are rising as the population ages and more people live with chronic diseases. Objectives: to determine whether predictive risk models can be built that use routine health and social care data to predict which older people will begin receiving intensive social care. Design: analysis of pseudonymous, person-level, data extracted from the administrative data systems of local health and social care organisations.Setting: five primary care trust areas in England and their associated councils with social services responsibilities.Subjects: people aged 75 or older registered continuously with a general practitioner in five selected areas of England (n = 155,905). Methods: multivariate statistical analysis using a split sample of data. Results: it was possible to construct models that predicted which people would begin receiving intensive social care in the coming 12 months. The performance of the models was improved by selecting a dependent variable based on a lower cost threshold as one of the definitions of commencing intensive social care. Conclusions: predictive models can be constructed that use linked, routine health and social care data for case finding in social care settings.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Article numberafq181
Pages (from-to)265-270
Number of pages6
JournalAge and Ageing
Volume40
Issue number2
DOIs
StatePublished - Mar 2011

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Critical Care
Delivery of Health Care
Social Work
England
Costs and Cost Analysis
Information Systems
General Practitioners
Primary Health Care
Chronic Disease
Multivariate Analysis
Organizations
Population

Keywords

  • Algorithms
  • Elderly
  • Residential facilities
  • Risk assessment/methods
  • Risk assessment/standards
  • Risk factors

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Aging
  • Geriatrics and Gerontology

Cite this

Predicting who will use intensive social care : Case finding tools based on linked health and social care data. / Bardsley, Martin; Billings, John; Dixon, Jennifer; Georghiou, Theo; Lewis, Geraint Hywel; Steventon, Adam.

In: Age and Ageing, Vol. 40, No. 2, afq181, 03.2011, p. 265-270.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Bardsley, Martin ; Billings, John ; Dixon, Jennifer ; Georghiou, Theo ; Lewis, Geraint Hywel ; Steventon, Adam. / Predicting who will use intensive social care : Case finding tools based on linked health and social care data. In: Age and Ageing. 2011 ; Vol. 40, No. 2. pp. 265-270.
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