Predicting decadal variations in Atlantic tropical cyclone numbers and Australian rainfall

Kevin J E Walsh, Richard Kleeman

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

Significant relationships on time scales longer than 5 years are demonstrated between northern Pacific sea surface temperatures, North Atlantic tropical cyclone numbers, and northeastern Australian rainfall. In agreement with previous work, the global nature of these correlations suggests that they are indications of an intrinsic interdecadal mode of oscillation in the global ocean-atmosphere system. The persistence in time of the sea surface temperature variations may enable forecasts to be made of North Atlantic tropical cyclone numbers several years in advance. A similar capability for the prediction of north-eastern Australian rainfall is also shown. Thus these relationships may be useful as an aid in long-term planning decisions.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)3249-3252
Number of pages4
JournalGeophysical Research Letters
Volume24
Issue number24
StatePublished - 1997

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decadal variation
cyclones
sea surface temperature
tropical cyclone
rainfall
global ocean
forecasting
planning
oceans
indication
persistence
oscillation
timescale
atmospheres
oscillations
atmosphere
prediction
predictions
forecast
decision

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous)

Cite this

Predicting decadal variations in Atlantic tropical cyclone numbers and Australian rainfall. / Walsh, Kevin J E; Kleeman, Richard.

In: Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 24, No. 24, 1997, p. 3249-3252.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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