On the accuracy of foreign trade statistics (1909-1935)

Morgenstern revisited

Giovanni Federico, Antonio Tena

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

This work questions Morgenstern's pessimistic results on the reliability of aggregate international foreign trade statistics: His comparisons using pairs of countries can only test the misclassification of a country's trade flow. Aggregation, by contrast, eliminates this problem. Therefore, testing the total value of imports and exports with the sum of the same trade flows as registered by their partner countries' statistics, leads to more encouraging conclusions on the aggregate data. Our results strengthen considerably one's trust in the reliability of pre-World War II foreign trade statistics. Diversity in individual countries' accuracy indexes can be partially explained by differences in freight factors and also by minor differences in compilation.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)259-273
Number of pages15
JournalExplorations in Economic History
Volume28
Issue number3
DOIs
StatePublished - Jan 1 1991

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Trade flows
Foreign trade
Trade statistics
Statistics
Foreign Trade
Aggregate data
Factors
Freight
Testing
Misclassification
Import
Second World War
Compilation

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • History
  • Economics and Econometrics

Cite this

On the accuracy of foreign trade statistics (1909-1935) : Morgenstern revisited. / Federico, Giovanni; Tena, Antonio.

In: Explorations in Economic History, Vol. 28, No. 3, 01.01.1991, p. 259-273.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Federico, Giovanni ; Tena, Antonio. / On the accuracy of foreign trade statistics (1909-1935) : Morgenstern revisited. In: Explorations in Economic History. 1991 ; Vol. 28, No. 3. pp. 259-273.
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