On the accuracy of foreign trade statistics (1909-1935)

Morgenstern revisited

Giovanni Federico, Antonio Tena

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

    Abstract

    This work questions Morgenstern's pessimistic results on the reliability of aggregate international foreign trade statistics: His comparisons using pairs of countries can only test the misclassification of a country's trade flow. Aggregation, by contrast, eliminates this problem. Therefore, testing the total value of imports and exports with the sum of the same trade flows as registered by their partner countries' statistics, leads to more encouraging conclusions on the aggregate data. Our results strengthen considerably one's trust in the reliability of pre-World War II foreign trade statistics. Diversity in individual countries' accuracy indexes can be partially explained by differences in freight factors and also by minor differences in compilation.

    Original languageEnglish (US)
    Pages (from-to)259-273
    Number of pages15
    JournalExplorations in Economic History
    Volume28
    Issue number3
    DOIs
    StatePublished - Jan 1 1991

    Fingerprint

    Trade flows
    Foreign trade
    Trade statistics
    Statistics
    Foreign Trade
    Factors
    Aggregate data
    Freight
    Testing
    Misclassification
    Import
    Second World War
    Compilation

    ASJC Scopus subject areas

    • History
    • Economics and Econometrics

    Cite this

    On the accuracy of foreign trade statistics (1909-1935) : Morgenstern revisited. / Federico, Giovanni; Tena, Antonio.

    In: Explorations in Economic History, Vol. 28, No. 3, 01.01.1991, p. 259-273.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

    Federico, Giovanni ; Tena, Antonio. / On the accuracy of foreign trade statistics (1909-1935) : Morgenstern revisited. In: Explorations in Economic History. 1991 ; Vol. 28, No. 3. pp. 259-273.
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