Northern winter climate change: Assessment of uncertainty in CMIP5 projections related to stratosphere-troposphere coupling

E. Manzini, A. Yu Karpechko, J. Anstey, M. P. Baldwin, R. X. Black, C. Cagnazzo, N. Calvo, A. Charlton-Perez, B. Christiansen, Paolo Davini, Edwin Gerber, M. Giorgetta, L. Gray, S. C. Hardiman, Y. Y. Lee, D. R. Marsh, B. A. McDaniel, A. Purich, A. A. Scaife, D. ShindellS. W. Son, S. Watanabe, G. Zappa

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

Future changes in the stratospheric circulation could have an important impact on northern winter tropospheric climate change, given that sea level pressure (SLP) responds not only to tropospheric circulation variations but also to vertically coherent variations in troposphere-stratosphere circulation. Here we assess northern winter stratospheric change and its potential to influence surface climate change in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-Phase 5 (CMIP5) multimodel ensemble. In the stratosphere at high latitudes, an easterly change in zonally averaged zonal wind is found for the majority of the CMIP5 models, under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario. Comparable results are also found in the 1% CO2 increase per year projections, indicating that the stratospheric easterly change is common feature in future climate projections. This stratospheric wind change, however, shows a signi fi cant spread among the models. By using linear regression, we quantify the impact of tropical upper troposphere warming, polar amplification, and the stratospheric wind change on SLP. We find that the intermodel spread in stratospheric wind change contributes substantially to the intermodel spread in Arctic SLP change. The role of the stratosphere in determining part of the spread in SLP change is supported by the fact that the SLP change lags the stratospheric zonally averaged wind change. Taken together, these findings provide further support for the importance of simulating the coupling between the stratosphere and the troposphere, to narrow the uncertainty in the future projection of tropospheric circulation changes.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)7979-7998
Number of pages20
JournalJournal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics
Volume119
Issue number13
DOIs
StatePublished - Jul 16 2014

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Upper atmosphere
Troposphere
climate change
sea level pressure
stratosphere
troposphere
sea level
Climate change
winter
projection
Sea level
zonal wind
polar regions
climate
regression analysis
amplification
time lag
warming
CMIP
Uncertainty

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Geochemistry and Petrology
  • Geophysics
  • Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous)
  • Space and Planetary Science

Cite this

Northern winter climate change : Assessment of uncertainty in CMIP5 projections related to stratosphere-troposphere coupling. / Manzini, E.; Karpechko, A. Yu; Anstey, J.; Baldwin, M. P.; Black, R. X.; Cagnazzo, C.; Calvo, N.; Charlton-Perez, A.; Christiansen, B.; Davini, Paolo; Gerber, Edwin; Giorgetta, M.; Gray, L.; Hardiman, S. C.; Lee, Y. Y.; Marsh, D. R.; McDaniel, B. A.; Purich, A.; Scaife, A. A.; Shindell, D.; Son, S. W.; Watanabe, S.; Zappa, G.

In: Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, Vol. 119, No. 13, 16.07.2014, p. 7979-7998.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Manzini, E, Karpechko, AY, Anstey, J, Baldwin, MP, Black, RX, Cagnazzo, C, Calvo, N, Charlton-Perez, A, Christiansen, B, Davini, P, Gerber, E, Giorgetta, M, Gray, L, Hardiman, SC, Lee, YY, Marsh, DR, McDaniel, BA, Purich, A, Scaife, AA, Shindell, D, Son, SW, Watanabe, S & Zappa, G 2014, 'Northern winter climate change: Assessment of uncertainty in CMIP5 projections related to stratosphere-troposphere coupling', Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, vol. 119, no. 13, pp. 7979-7998. https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JD021403
Manzini, E. ; Karpechko, A. Yu ; Anstey, J. ; Baldwin, M. P. ; Black, R. X. ; Cagnazzo, C. ; Calvo, N. ; Charlton-Perez, A. ; Christiansen, B. ; Davini, Paolo ; Gerber, Edwin ; Giorgetta, M. ; Gray, L. ; Hardiman, S. C. ; Lee, Y. Y. ; Marsh, D. R. ; McDaniel, B. A. ; Purich, A. ; Scaife, A. A. ; Shindell, D. ; Son, S. W. ; Watanabe, S. ; Zappa, G. / Northern winter climate change : Assessment of uncertainty in CMIP5 projections related to stratosphere-troposphere coupling. In: Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics. 2014 ; Vol. 119, No. 13. pp. 7979-7998.
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