Modelling the long-term impacts on affected children of adult HIV

Benefits, challenges and a possible approach

Christopher Desmond, Faikah Bruce, M. Tomlinson, Marguerite B. Marlow, J. Lawrence Aber, Rachid Ouifki, Alex Welte

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

We outline the benefits, challenges and possible approaches to developing mathematical models that could be used to estimate the magnitude of negative consequences of adult HIV infection for children. Adult HIV infection can lead to numerous negative consequences for dependent children, including depression, anxiety, withdrawal from school and early sexual debut, among others. For advocacy and planning purposes, it is important to highlight and consider as many of these as possible. A focus solely on orphan numbers, which is the typical summary measure for children affected by HIV and AIDS, can be misleading. The complexity of child development that is characterized by the interaction of a multitude of proximal and distal factors, coupled with a significant lack of data on child development in the context of adult HIV infection make the development of models a challenging task. Although it may not be possible in the first attempt to develop a population-based model capable of examining family dynamics, the negative consequences together with the impact of interventions, steps in that direction can be taken. We propose approaches and assumptions that we believe will allow the development of a useful first set of models. We conclude with a brief discussion of the type of data that, if collected, would facilitate refinement and development of these models.

Original languageEnglish (US)
JournalAIDS
Volume28
Issue numberSUPPL. 3
DOIs
StatePublished - 2014

Fingerprint

HIV Infections
HIV
Child Development
Family Relations
Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome
Theoretical Models
Anxiety
Depression
Population
Direction compound

Keywords

  • affected children
  • child development
  • modelling
  • orphans

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Immunology and Allergy
  • Immunology
  • Infectious Diseases
  • Medicine(all)

Cite this

Modelling the long-term impacts on affected children of adult HIV : Benefits, challenges and a possible approach. / Desmond, Christopher; Bruce, Faikah; Tomlinson, M.; Marlow, Marguerite B.; Aber, J. Lawrence; Ouifki, Rachid; Welte, Alex.

In: AIDS, Vol. 28, No. SUPPL. 3, 2014.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Desmond, Christopher ; Bruce, Faikah ; Tomlinson, M. ; Marlow, Marguerite B. ; Aber, J. Lawrence ; Ouifki, Rachid ; Welte, Alex. / Modelling the long-term impacts on affected children of adult HIV : Benefits, challenges and a possible approach. In: AIDS. 2014 ; Vol. 28, No. SUPPL. 3.
@article{f2e98946f83a4b07a2c05d0c916bb7ab,
title = "Modelling the long-term impacts on affected children of adult HIV: Benefits, challenges and a possible approach",
abstract = "We outline the benefits, challenges and possible approaches to developing mathematical models that could be used to estimate the magnitude of negative consequences of adult HIV infection for children. Adult HIV infection can lead to numerous negative consequences for dependent children, including depression, anxiety, withdrawal from school and early sexual debut, among others. For advocacy and planning purposes, it is important to highlight and consider as many of these as possible. A focus solely on orphan numbers, which is the typical summary measure for children affected by HIV and AIDS, can be misleading. The complexity of child development that is characterized by the interaction of a multitude of proximal and distal factors, coupled with a significant lack of data on child development in the context of adult HIV infection make the development of models a challenging task. Although it may not be possible in the first attempt to develop a population-based model capable of examining family dynamics, the negative consequences together with the impact of interventions, steps in that direction can be taken. We propose approaches and assumptions that we believe will allow the development of a useful first set of models. We conclude with a brief discussion of the type of data that, if collected, would facilitate refinement and development of these models.",
keywords = "affected children, child development, modelling, orphans",
author = "Christopher Desmond and Faikah Bruce and M. Tomlinson and Marlow, {Marguerite B.} and Aber, {J. Lawrence} and Rachid Ouifki and Alex Welte",
year = "2014",
doi = "10.1097/QAD.0000000000000329",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "28",
journal = "AIDS",
issn = "0269-9370",
publisher = "Lippincott Williams and Wilkins",
number = "SUPPL. 3",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Modelling the long-term impacts on affected children of adult HIV

T2 - Benefits, challenges and a possible approach

AU - Desmond, Christopher

AU - Bruce, Faikah

AU - Tomlinson, M.

AU - Marlow, Marguerite B.

AU - Aber, J. Lawrence

AU - Ouifki, Rachid

AU - Welte, Alex

PY - 2014

Y1 - 2014

N2 - We outline the benefits, challenges and possible approaches to developing mathematical models that could be used to estimate the magnitude of negative consequences of adult HIV infection for children. Adult HIV infection can lead to numerous negative consequences for dependent children, including depression, anxiety, withdrawal from school and early sexual debut, among others. For advocacy and planning purposes, it is important to highlight and consider as many of these as possible. A focus solely on orphan numbers, which is the typical summary measure for children affected by HIV and AIDS, can be misleading. The complexity of child development that is characterized by the interaction of a multitude of proximal and distal factors, coupled with a significant lack of data on child development in the context of adult HIV infection make the development of models a challenging task. Although it may not be possible in the first attempt to develop a population-based model capable of examining family dynamics, the negative consequences together with the impact of interventions, steps in that direction can be taken. We propose approaches and assumptions that we believe will allow the development of a useful first set of models. We conclude with a brief discussion of the type of data that, if collected, would facilitate refinement and development of these models.

AB - We outline the benefits, challenges and possible approaches to developing mathematical models that could be used to estimate the magnitude of negative consequences of adult HIV infection for children. Adult HIV infection can lead to numerous negative consequences for dependent children, including depression, anxiety, withdrawal from school and early sexual debut, among others. For advocacy and planning purposes, it is important to highlight and consider as many of these as possible. A focus solely on orphan numbers, which is the typical summary measure for children affected by HIV and AIDS, can be misleading. The complexity of child development that is characterized by the interaction of a multitude of proximal and distal factors, coupled with a significant lack of data on child development in the context of adult HIV infection make the development of models a challenging task. Although it may not be possible in the first attempt to develop a population-based model capable of examining family dynamics, the negative consequences together with the impact of interventions, steps in that direction can be taken. We propose approaches and assumptions that we believe will allow the development of a useful first set of models. We conclude with a brief discussion of the type of data that, if collected, would facilitate refinement and development of these models.

KW - affected children

KW - child development

KW - modelling

KW - orphans

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84903997164&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=84903997164&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1097/QAD.0000000000000329

DO - 10.1097/QAD.0000000000000329

M3 - Article

VL - 28

JO - AIDS

JF - AIDS

SN - 0269-9370

IS - SUPPL. 3

ER -