Measuring price-level uncertainty and instability in the United States, 1850-2012

Timothy Cogley, Thomas Sargent

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

    Abstract

    We measure price-level uncertainty and instability in the United States over the period 1850 to 2012. Major outbreaks of price-level uncertainty and instability occur both before and after World War II, alternating with three price-level moderations: one near the turn of the twentieth century, another under Bretton Woods, and a third in the 1990s. There is no evidence that the price level was systematically more stable or less uncertain before or after World War II. Moderations sometimes involved links to gold, but the experience of the 1990s proves that a well-managed fiat regime can achieve the same outcome.

    Original languageEnglish (US)
    Pages (from-to)827-838
    Number of pages12
    JournalReview of Economics and Statistics
    Volume97
    Issue number4
    DOIs
    StatePublished - Oct 1 2015

    Fingerprint

    price level
    uncertainty
    World War II
    gold
    twentieth century
    regime
    Price level
    Uncertainty
    evidence
    experience
    Second World War
    Moderation

    ASJC Scopus subject areas

    • Economics and Econometrics
    • Social Sciences (miscellaneous)

    Cite this

    Measuring price-level uncertainty and instability in the United States, 1850-2012. / Cogley, Timothy; Sargent, Thomas.

    In: Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 97, No. 4, 01.10.2015, p. 827-838.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

    Cogley, Timothy ; Sargent, Thomas. / Measuring price-level uncertainty and instability in the United States, 1850-2012. In: Review of Economics and Statistics. 2015 ; Vol. 97, No. 4. pp. 827-838.
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