Intermodel variability of the poleward shift of the austral jet stream in the CMIP3 integrations linked to biases in 20th century climatology

J. Kidston, Edwin Gerber

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

Future climate predictions by global circulation models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) archive indicate that the recent poleward shift of the eddy-driven jet streams will continue throughout the 21st century. Here it is shown that differences in the projected magnitude of the trend in the Southern Hemisphere are well correlated with biases in the latitude of the jet in the simulation of 20th century climate. Furthermore, the latitude of the jet in the models' 20th century climatology is correlated with biases in the internal variability of the jet stream, as quantified by the time scale of the annular mode. Thus an equatorward bias in the position of the jet is associated with both enhanced persistence of the annular mode, and an increased poleward shift of the jet. These relationships appear to be robust throughout the year except in the austral summer, when differences in forcing, particularly stratospheric ozone, make it impossible to compare the response of one model with another. These results suggest that the fidelity of a model's simulation of the 20th century climate may be related to its fitness for climate prediction. The cause of this relationship is discussed, as well as the implications for climate change projections.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Article numberL09708
JournalGeophysical Research Letters
Volume37
Issue number9
DOIs
StatePublished - May 5 2010

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climatology
jet stream
climate
climate prediction
shift
twenty first century
fitness
simulation
Southern Hemisphere
climate change
eddy
predictions
persistence
ozone
summer
timescale
projection
CMIP
vortices
trends

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Earth and Planetary Sciences(all)
  • Geophysics

Cite this

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title = "Intermodel variability of the poleward shift of the austral jet stream in the CMIP3 integrations linked to biases in 20th century climatology",
abstract = "Future climate predictions by global circulation models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) archive indicate that the recent poleward shift of the eddy-driven jet streams will continue throughout the 21st century. Here it is shown that differences in the projected magnitude of the trend in the Southern Hemisphere are well correlated with biases in the latitude of the jet in the simulation of 20th century climate. Furthermore, the latitude of the jet in the models' 20th century climatology is correlated with biases in the internal variability of the jet stream, as quantified by the time scale of the annular mode. Thus an equatorward bias in the position of the jet is associated with both enhanced persistence of the annular mode, and an increased poleward shift of the jet. These relationships appear to be robust throughout the year except in the austral summer, when differences in forcing, particularly stratospheric ozone, make it impossible to compare the response of one model with another. These results suggest that the fidelity of a model's simulation of the 20th century climate may be related to its fitness for climate prediction. The cause of this relationship is discussed, as well as the implications for climate change projections.",
author = "J. Kidston and Edwin Gerber",
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N2 - Future climate predictions by global circulation models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) archive indicate that the recent poleward shift of the eddy-driven jet streams will continue throughout the 21st century. Here it is shown that differences in the projected magnitude of the trend in the Southern Hemisphere are well correlated with biases in the latitude of the jet in the simulation of 20th century climate. Furthermore, the latitude of the jet in the models' 20th century climatology is correlated with biases in the internal variability of the jet stream, as quantified by the time scale of the annular mode. Thus an equatorward bias in the position of the jet is associated with both enhanced persistence of the annular mode, and an increased poleward shift of the jet. These relationships appear to be robust throughout the year except in the austral summer, when differences in forcing, particularly stratospheric ozone, make it impossible to compare the response of one model with another. These results suggest that the fidelity of a model's simulation of the 20th century climate may be related to its fitness for climate prediction. The cause of this relationship is discussed, as well as the implications for climate change projections.

AB - Future climate predictions by global circulation models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) archive indicate that the recent poleward shift of the eddy-driven jet streams will continue throughout the 21st century. Here it is shown that differences in the projected magnitude of the trend in the Southern Hemisphere are well correlated with biases in the latitude of the jet in the simulation of 20th century climate. Furthermore, the latitude of the jet in the models' 20th century climatology is correlated with biases in the internal variability of the jet stream, as quantified by the time scale of the annular mode. Thus an equatorward bias in the position of the jet is associated with both enhanced persistence of the annular mode, and an increased poleward shift of the jet. These relationships appear to be robust throughout the year except in the austral summer, when differences in forcing, particularly stratospheric ozone, make it impossible to compare the response of one model with another. These results suggest that the fidelity of a model's simulation of the 20th century climate may be related to its fitness for climate prediction. The cause of this relationship is discussed, as well as the implications for climate change projections.

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