Infrastructure state transition probability computation using duration models

Rabi G. Mishalani, Samer Madanat

    Research output: Contribution to conferencePaper

    Abstract

    Sound infrastructure deterioration models are essential for accurately predicting future conditions which, in turn, are key inputs to effective maintenance and rehabilitation decision-making. The challenge central to developing accurate deterioration models is that condition is often measured on a discrete scale, such as inspectors' ratings. Furthermore, deterioration is a stochastic process that varies widely with several factors, many of which are generally not captured by available data. Therefore, probabilistic discrete state models are often used to characterize deterioration. Such models are based on transition probabilities which capture the nature of the evolution of condition states from one time point to the next. However, current methods for determining such probabilities suffer from several serious limitations. An alternative approach addressing these limitations is presented in this paper. A probabilistic model of the time spent in a state is derived and the approach used for estimating its parameters is described. Furthermore, a methodology for determining the corresponding state transition probabilities from the developed duration model is presented. Finally, the overall methodology is demonstrated using a data set of reinforced concrete bridge deck observations.

    Original languageEnglish (US)
    Pages505-512
    Number of pages8
    StatePublished - Jan 1 2002
    EventProceedings of the seventh International Conference on: Applications of Advanced Technology in Transportation - Cambridge, MA, United States
    Duration: Aug 5 2002Aug 7 2002

    Other

    OtherProceedings of the seventh International Conference on: Applications of Advanced Technology in Transportation
    CountryUnited States
    CityCambridge, MA
    Period8/5/028/7/02

    Fingerprint

    Deterioration
    Bridge decks
    Concrete bridges
    Random processes
    Patient rehabilitation
    Reinforced concrete
    Decision making
    Acoustic waves

    ASJC Scopus subject areas

    • Engineering(all)

    Cite this

    Mishalani, R. G., & Madanat, S. (2002). Infrastructure state transition probability computation using duration models. 505-512. Paper presented at Proceedings of the seventh International Conference on: Applications of Advanced Technology in Transportation, Cambridge, MA, United States.

    Infrastructure state transition probability computation using duration models. / Mishalani, Rabi G.; Madanat, Samer.

    2002. 505-512 Paper presented at Proceedings of the seventh International Conference on: Applications of Advanced Technology in Transportation, Cambridge, MA, United States.

    Research output: Contribution to conferencePaper

    Mishalani, RG & Madanat, S 2002, 'Infrastructure state transition probability computation using duration models' Paper presented at Proceedings of the seventh International Conference on: Applications of Advanced Technology in Transportation, Cambridge, MA, United States, 8/5/02 - 8/7/02, pp. 505-512.
    Mishalani RG, Madanat S. Infrastructure state transition probability computation using duration models. 2002. Paper presented at Proceedings of the seventh International Conference on: Applications of Advanced Technology in Transportation, Cambridge, MA, United States.
    Mishalani, Rabi G. ; Madanat, Samer. / Infrastructure state transition probability computation using duration models. Paper presented at Proceedings of the seventh International Conference on: Applications of Advanced Technology in Transportation, Cambridge, MA, United States.8 p.
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