Individual and systemic influences on turnout: Who votes? 1984

Jan E. Leighley, Jonathan Nagler

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

While Wolfinger and Rosenstone's (1980) analysis of turnout in presidential elections focused on individual demographic characteristics, several scholars (Patterson and Caldeira 1983; Cox and Munger 1989) have emphasized the importance of state-level systemic variables (e.g., per capita income, party competition, and campaign spending) in predicting turnout. This paper addresses three main questions. First, are individual demographic characteristics as influential in predicting turnout in 1984 as Wolfinger and Rosenstone found they were in 1972? Second, do individual characteristics lessen in importance when systemic factors are controlled for? And, third, to what extent does the effect of individual characteristics vary across different regions? Data on individual demographic characteristics are taken from the Census Bureau's November 1984 Current Population Survey and merged with systemic data. We find that race and sex have become much stronger predictors of turnout than they were in 1972, though education is still the primary determinant of voting. These relationships hold even when systemic variables are included in the turnout model.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)718-740
Number of pages23
JournalThe Journal of Politics
Volume54
Issue number3
DOIs
StatePublished - 1992

Fingerprint

voter turnout
presidential election
voting
census
campaign
determinants
income
education

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Sociology and Political Science

Cite this

Individual and systemic influences on turnout : Who votes? 1984. / Leighley, Jan E.; Nagler, Jonathan.

In: The Journal of Politics, Vol. 54, No. 3, 1992, p. 718-740.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

@article{d31613eb2d21426dbd4b3c690ffae2de,
title = "Individual and systemic influences on turnout: Who votes? 1984",
abstract = "While Wolfinger and Rosenstone's (1980) analysis of turnout in presidential elections focused on individual demographic characteristics, several scholars (Patterson and Caldeira 1983; Cox and Munger 1989) have emphasized the importance of state-level systemic variables (e.g., per capita income, party competition, and campaign spending) in predicting turnout. This paper addresses three main questions. First, are individual demographic characteristics as influential in predicting turnout in 1984 as Wolfinger and Rosenstone found they were in 1972? Second, do individual characteristics lessen in importance when systemic factors are controlled for? And, third, to what extent does the effect of individual characteristics vary across different regions? Data on individual demographic characteristics are taken from the Census Bureau's November 1984 Current Population Survey and merged with systemic data. We find that race and sex have become much stronger predictors of turnout than they were in 1972, though education is still the primary determinant of voting. These relationships hold even when systemic variables are included in the turnout model.",
author = "Leighley, {Jan E.} and Jonathan Nagler",
year = "1992",
doi = "10.2307/2132308",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "54",
pages = "718--740",
journal = "Journal of Politics",
issn = "0022-3816",
publisher = "Cambridge University Press",
number = "3",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Individual and systemic influences on turnout

T2 - Who votes? 1984

AU - Leighley, Jan E.

AU - Nagler, Jonathan

PY - 1992

Y1 - 1992

N2 - While Wolfinger and Rosenstone's (1980) analysis of turnout in presidential elections focused on individual demographic characteristics, several scholars (Patterson and Caldeira 1983; Cox and Munger 1989) have emphasized the importance of state-level systemic variables (e.g., per capita income, party competition, and campaign spending) in predicting turnout. This paper addresses three main questions. First, are individual demographic characteristics as influential in predicting turnout in 1984 as Wolfinger and Rosenstone found they were in 1972? Second, do individual characteristics lessen in importance when systemic factors are controlled for? And, third, to what extent does the effect of individual characteristics vary across different regions? Data on individual demographic characteristics are taken from the Census Bureau's November 1984 Current Population Survey and merged with systemic data. We find that race and sex have become much stronger predictors of turnout than they were in 1972, though education is still the primary determinant of voting. These relationships hold even when systemic variables are included in the turnout model.

AB - While Wolfinger and Rosenstone's (1980) analysis of turnout in presidential elections focused on individual demographic characteristics, several scholars (Patterson and Caldeira 1983; Cox and Munger 1989) have emphasized the importance of state-level systemic variables (e.g., per capita income, party competition, and campaign spending) in predicting turnout. This paper addresses three main questions. First, are individual demographic characteristics as influential in predicting turnout in 1984 as Wolfinger and Rosenstone found they were in 1972? Second, do individual characteristics lessen in importance when systemic factors are controlled for? And, third, to what extent does the effect of individual characteristics vary across different regions? Data on individual demographic characteristics are taken from the Census Bureau's November 1984 Current Population Survey and merged with systemic data. We find that race and sex have become much stronger predictors of turnout than they were in 1972, though education is still the primary determinant of voting. These relationships hold even when systemic variables are included in the turnout model.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84972245956&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=84972245956&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.2307/2132308

DO - 10.2307/2132308

M3 - Article

VL - 54

SP - 718

EP - 740

JO - Journal of Politics

JF - Journal of Politics

SN - 0022-3816

IS - 3

ER -