Increasing trend of synoptic activity and its relationship with extreme rain events over central India

Ajaya Ravindran, William J. Merryfield, Viatcheslav V. Kharin

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

    Abstract

    The nature of the increasing frequency of extreme rainfall events (ERE) in central India is investigated by relating their occurrence to synoptic activity. Using a long record of the paths and intensities of monsoon synoptic disturbances, a synoptic activity index (SAI) is defined whose interannual variation correlates strongly with that in the number of ERE, demonstrating a strong connection between these phenomena. SAI furthermore shows a rising trend that is statistically indistinguishable from that in ERE, indicating that the increasing frequency of ERE is likely attributable to a rising trend in synoptic activity. This synoptic activity increase results from a rising trend in relatively weak low pressure systems (LPS), and it outweighs a declining trend in stronger LPS.

    Original languageEnglish (US)
    Pages (from-to)1004-1013
    Number of pages10
    JournalJournal of Climate
    Volume23
    Issue number4
    DOIs
    StatePublished - Feb 1 2010

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    low pressure system
    rainfall
    annual variation
    monsoon
    disturbance
    trend
    rain
    index

    ASJC Scopus subject areas

    • Atmospheric Science

    Cite this

    Increasing trend of synoptic activity and its relationship with extreme rain events over central India. / Ravindran, Ajaya; Merryfield, William J.; Kharin, Viatcheslav V.

    In: Journal of Climate, Vol. 23, No. 4, 01.02.2010, p. 1004-1013.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

    Ravindran, Ajaya ; Merryfield, William J. ; Kharin, Viatcheslav V. / Increasing trend of synoptic activity and its relationship with extreme rain events over central India. In: Journal of Climate. 2010 ; Vol. 23, No. 4. pp. 1004-1013.
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