Growth, Import Dependence, and War

Roberto Bonfatti, Kevin O'Rourke

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

Theories of war predict that the leader may launch a war on a follower who is catching up, since the follower cannot commit to not use their increased power in the future. But it was Japan who attacked the West in 1941: both leaders and followers start wars. Similarly, many have argued that trade makes war less likely, yet the First World War erupted at a time of unprecedented globalisation. We develop a model of trade and war that can explain both observations. Dependence on imports can lead followers to attack leaders or resource-rich regions when they are subject to blockade.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)2222-2257
Number of pages36
JournalEconomic Journal
Volume128
Issue number614
DOIs
StatePublished - Sep 1 2018

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Import
Follower
Resources
Globalization
Attack
Japan
World War I
Catching-up

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Economics and Econometrics

Cite this

Bonfatti, R., & O'Rourke, K. (2018). Growth, Import Dependence, and War. Economic Journal, 128(614), 2222-2257. https://doi.org/10.1111/ecoj.12511

Growth, Import Dependence, and War. / Bonfatti, Roberto; O'Rourke, Kevin.

In: Economic Journal, Vol. 128, No. 614, 01.09.2018, p. 2222-2257.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Bonfatti, R & O'Rourke, K 2018, 'Growth, Import Dependence, and War', Economic Journal, vol. 128, no. 614, pp. 2222-2257. https://doi.org/10.1111/ecoj.12511
Bonfatti R, O'Rourke K. Growth, Import Dependence, and War. Economic Journal. 2018 Sep 1;128(614):2222-2257. https://doi.org/10.1111/ecoj.12511
Bonfatti, Roberto ; O'Rourke, Kevin. / Growth, Import Dependence, and War. In: Economic Journal. 2018 ; Vol. 128, No. 614. pp. 2222-2257.
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