Estimation of transition probabilities from facility condition ratings

Samer Madanat, Rabi Mishalani, Wan Hashim Wan Ibrahim

    Research output: Contribution to conferencePaper

    Abstract

    Markovian transition probabilities have been used extensively in the field of infrastructure management to provide forecasts of facility conditions. However, existing approaches used to estimate these transition probabilities from inspection data are mostly ad hoc and suffer from important methodological limitations. In this paper, we present a rigorous econometric method for the estimation of infrastructure deterioration models and associated transition probabilities from condition rating data. This methodology, which is based on ordered probit techniques, explicitly treats facility deterioration as a latent variable, recognizes the discrete ordinal nature of condition ratings and, as opposed to state-of-the-art methods, explicitly links deterioration to relevant explanatory variables. An empirical case study, using a bridge inspection data set from Indiana, demonstrates the capabilities of the proposed methodology.

    Original languageEnglish (US)
    Pages1658-1669
    Number of pages12
    StatePublished - Dec 1 1995
    EventProceedings of the Transportation Congress. Part 1 (of 2) - San Diego, CA, USA
    Duration: Oct 22 1995Oct 26 1995

    Other

    OtherProceedings of the Transportation Congress. Part 1 (of 2)
    CitySan Diego, CA, USA
    Period10/22/9510/26/95

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    Deterioration
    Inspection

    ASJC Scopus subject areas

    • Engineering(all)

    Cite this

    Madanat, S., Mishalani, R., & Ibrahim, W. H. W. (1995). Estimation of transition probabilities from facility condition ratings. 1658-1669. Paper presented at Proceedings of the Transportation Congress. Part 1 (of 2), San Diego, CA, USA, .

    Estimation of transition probabilities from facility condition ratings. / Madanat, Samer; Mishalani, Rabi; Ibrahim, Wan Hashim Wan.

    1995. 1658-1669 Paper presented at Proceedings of the Transportation Congress. Part 1 (of 2), San Diego, CA, USA, .

    Research output: Contribution to conferencePaper

    Madanat, S, Mishalani, R & Ibrahim, WHW 1995, 'Estimation of transition probabilities from facility condition ratings' Paper presented at Proceedings of the Transportation Congress. Part 1 (of 2), San Diego, CA, USA, 10/22/95 - 10/26/95, pp. 1658-1669.
    Madanat S, Mishalani R, Ibrahim WHW. Estimation of transition probabilities from facility condition ratings. 1995. Paper presented at Proceedings of the Transportation Congress. Part 1 (of 2), San Diego, CA, USA, .
    Madanat, Samer ; Mishalani, Rabi ; Ibrahim, Wan Hashim Wan. / Estimation of transition probabilities from facility condition ratings. Paper presented at Proceedings of the Transportation Congress. Part 1 (of 2), San Diego, CA, USA, .12 p.
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