Estimation of infrastructure transition probabilities from condition rating data

Samer Madanat, Rabi Mishalani, Wan Hashim Wan Ibrahim

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

    Abstract

    Markovian transition probabilities have been used extensively in the field of infrastructure management to provide forecasts of facility conditions. However, existing approaches used to estimate these transition probabilities from inspection data are mostly ad hoc and suffer from important methodological limitations. In this paper, we present a rigorous econometric method for the estimation of infrastructure deterioration models and associated transition probabilities from condition rating data. This methodology, which is based on ordered probit techniques, explicitly treats facility deterioration as a latent variable, recognizes the discrete ordinal nature of condition ratings, and, as opposed to state-of-the-art methods, explicitly links deterioration to relevant explanatory variables. An empirical case study using a bridge inspection data set from Indiana demonstrates the capabilities of the proposed methodology

    Original languageEnglish (US)
    Pages (from-to)120-125
    Number of pages6
    JournalJournal of Infrastructure Systems
    Volume1
    Issue number2
    DOIs
    StatePublished - Jan 1 1995

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    ASJC Scopus subject areas

    • Civil and Structural Engineering

    Cite this

    Estimation of infrastructure transition probabilities from condition rating data. / Madanat, Samer; Mishalani, Rabi; Wan Ibrahim, Wan Hashim.

    In: Journal of Infrastructure Systems, Vol. 1, No. 2, 01.01.1995, p. 120-125.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

    Madanat, Samer ; Mishalani, Rabi ; Wan Ibrahim, Wan Hashim. / Estimation of infrastructure transition probabilities from condition rating data. In: Journal of Infrastructure Systems. 1995 ; Vol. 1, No. 2. pp. 120-125.
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