Estimation of infrastructure distress initiation and progression models

Samer Madanat, Srinivas Bulusu, Amr Mahmoud

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

    Abstract

    Infrastructure distress models predict the initiation and progression of distress on a facility over time as a function of age, design characteristics, environmental factors, and so on. Examples of facility distress included cracking, potholing, and rutting. Facility condition survey data sets typically include a large number of structural zeros indicating absence of distress at the time of observation. Most distress progression models in the literature are simple regression models that are estimated using the sample of observations for which distress has been initiated. These models are statistically erroneous because they suffer from selectivity bias due to the nonrandom nature of the estimation sample used. In this paper, we apply two econometric methods to estimate joint discrete-continuous models of infrastructure distress initiation and progression while correcting for selectivity bias. These methods are Heckman’s procedure and the full information maximum likelihood method. An empirical case study demonstrates these methods for the case of highway-pavement-cracking models. It is shown that selectivity bias can be a very serious problem in such models.

    Original languageEnglish (US)
    Pages (from-to)146-150
    Number of pages5
    JournalJournal of Infrastructure Systems
    Volume1
    Issue number3
    DOIs
    StatePublished - Jan 1 1995

    Fingerprint

    infrastructure
    trend
    rutting
    econometrics
    pavement
    Pavements
    Maximum likelihood
    environmental factors
    environmental factor
    road
    regression
    method
    time

    ASJC Scopus subject areas

    • Civil and Structural Engineering
    • Ocean Engineering
    • Water Science and Technology
    • Transportation

    Cite this

    Estimation of infrastructure distress initiation and progression models. / Madanat, Samer; Bulusu, Srinivas; Mahmoud, Amr.

    In: Journal of Infrastructure Systems, Vol. 1, No. 3, 01.01.1995, p. 146-150.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

    Madanat, Samer ; Bulusu, Srinivas ; Mahmoud, Amr. / Estimation of infrastructure distress initiation and progression models. In: Journal of Infrastructure Systems. 1995 ; Vol. 1, No. 3. pp. 146-150.
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