Estimate of predictability of monthly means in tropics from observations

B. N. Goswami, Ajaya Ravindran

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

    Abstract

    A method of separating the contributions from slowly varying boundary forcing and internal dynamics (e.g. intraseasonal oscillations) that determine the predictability of the monthly mean tropical climate is presented. Based on 33 years of daily low level wind observations and 24 years of satellite observations of outgoing long wave radiation, we show that the Indian monsoon climate is only marginally predictable, as the contribution of the boundary forcing in this region is relatively low and that of the internal dynamics is relatively large. It is also shown that excluding the Indian monsoon region, the predictable region is larger and predictability is higher in the tropics during northern summer. Even though the boundary forced variance is large during northern winter, the predictable region is smaller as the internal variance is larger and covers a larger region during that period (due to stronger intraseasonal activity).

    Original languageEnglish (US)
    Pages (from-to)56-63
    Number of pages8
    JournalCurrent Science
    Volume80
    Issue number1
    StatePublished - Jan 10 2001

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    monsoon
    longwave radiation
    oscillation
    tropics
    winter
    climate
    summer
    method
    tropical climate
    observation satellite

    ASJC Scopus subject areas

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    Cite this

    Goswami, B. N., & Ravindran, A. (2001). Estimate of predictability of monthly means in tropics from observations. Current Science, 80(1), 56-63.

    Estimate of predictability of monthly means in tropics from observations. / Goswami, B. N.; Ravindran, Ajaya.

    In: Current Science, Vol. 80, No. 1, 10.01.2001, p. 56-63.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

    Goswami, BN & Ravindran, A 2001, 'Estimate of predictability of monthly means in tropics from observations', Current Science, vol. 80, no. 1, pp. 56-63.
    Goswami, B. N. ; Ravindran, Ajaya. / Estimate of predictability of monthly means in tropics from observations. In: Current Science. 2001 ; Vol. 80, No. 1. pp. 56-63.
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