Carbon-temperature-water change analysis for peanut production under climate change

A prototype for the AgMIP coordinated climate-crop modeling project (C3MP)

Alex C. Ruane, Sonali Mcdermid, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Guillermo A. Baigorria, James W. Jones, Consuelo C. Romero, L. Dewayne Cecil

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

    Abstract

    Climate change is projected to push the limits of cropping systems and has the potential to disrupt the agricultural sector from local to global scales. This article introduces the Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP), an initiative of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) to engage a global network of crop modelers to explore the impacts of climate change via an investigation of crop responses to changes in carbon dioxide concentration ([CO2]), temperature, and water. As a demonstration of the C3MP protocols and enabled analyses, we apply the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) CROPGRO-Peanut crop model for Henry County, Alabama, to evaluate responses to the range of plausible [CO2], temperature changes, and precipitation changes projected by climate models out to the end of the 21st century. These sensitivity tests are used to derive crop model emulators that estimate changes in mean yield and the coefficient of variation for seasonal yields across a broad range of climate conditions, reproducing mean yields from sensitivity test simulations with deviations of ca. 2% for rain-fed conditions. We apply these statistical emulators to investigate how peanuts respond to projections from various global climate models, time periods, and emissions scenarios, finding a robust projection of modest (<10%) median yield losses in the middle of the 21st century accelerating to more severe (>20%) losses and larger uncertainty at the end of the century under the more severe representative concentration pathway (RCP8.5). This projection is not substantially altered by the selection of the AgMERRA global gridded climate dataset rather than the local historical observations, differences between the Third and Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5), or the use of the delta method of climate impacts analysis rather than the C3MP impacts response surface and emulator approach.

    Original languageEnglish (US)
    Pages (from-to)394-407
    Number of pages14
    JournalGlobal Change Biology
    Volume20
    Issue number2
    DOIs
    StatePublished - Feb 2014

    Fingerprint

    Climate change
    Crops
    water temperature
    Carbon
    crop
    climate change
    Water
    carbon
    climate
    Climate models
    modeling
    global climate
    climate modeling
    Temperature
    twenty first century
    climate effect
    decision support system
    Decision support systems
    climate conditions
    Carbon Dioxide

    Keywords

    • AgMIP
    • Agriculture
    • C3MP
    • Carbon dioxide, temperature, and water
    • Climate change
    • Climate impacts
    • Crop model
    • Impacts response surface

    ASJC Scopus subject areas

    • Global and Planetary Change
    • Environmental Chemistry
    • Ecology
    • Environmental Science(all)

    Cite this

    Carbon-temperature-water change analysis for peanut production under climate change : A prototype for the AgMIP coordinated climate-crop modeling project (C3MP). / Ruane, Alex C.; Mcdermid, Sonali; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Baigorria, Guillermo A.; Jones, James W.; Romero, Consuelo C.; Dewayne Cecil, L.

    In: Global Change Biology, Vol. 20, No. 2, 02.2014, p. 394-407.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

    Ruane, Alex C. ; Mcdermid, Sonali ; Rosenzweig, Cynthia ; Baigorria, Guillermo A. ; Jones, James W. ; Romero, Consuelo C. ; Dewayne Cecil, L. / Carbon-temperature-water change analysis for peanut production under climate change : A prototype for the AgMIP coordinated climate-crop modeling project (C3MP). In: Global Change Biology. 2014 ; Vol. 20, No. 2. pp. 394-407.
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    abstract = "Climate change is projected to push the limits of cropping systems and has the potential to disrupt the agricultural sector from local to global scales. This article introduces the Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP), an initiative of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) to engage a global network of crop modelers to explore the impacts of climate change via an investigation of crop responses to changes in carbon dioxide concentration ([CO2]), temperature, and water. As a demonstration of the C3MP protocols and enabled analyses, we apply the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) CROPGRO-Peanut crop model for Henry County, Alabama, to evaluate responses to the range of plausible [CO2], temperature changes, and precipitation changes projected by climate models out to the end of the 21st century. These sensitivity tests are used to derive crop model emulators that estimate changes in mean yield and the coefficient of variation for seasonal yields across a broad range of climate conditions, reproducing mean yields from sensitivity test simulations with deviations of ca. 2{\%} for rain-fed conditions. We apply these statistical emulators to investigate how peanuts respond to projections from various global climate models, time periods, and emissions scenarios, finding a robust projection of modest (<10{\%}) median yield losses in the middle of the 21st century accelerating to more severe (>20{\%}) losses and larger uncertainty at the end of the century under the more severe representative concentration pathway (RCP8.5). This projection is not substantially altered by the selection of the AgMERRA global gridded climate dataset rather than the local historical observations, differences between the Third and Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5), or the use of the delta method of climate impacts analysis rather than the C3MP impacts response surface and emulator approach.",
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