Age, period, and cohort effects in motor vehicle mortality in the United States, 1980-2010

The role of sex, alcohol involvement, and position in vehicle

James Macinko, Diana Silver, Jin Yung Bae

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

Introduction Although substantive declines in motor vehicle fatalities in 1980-2010 have been observed, declines by position in the vehicle and alcohol involvement have not been well elucidated. Method Analyses of FARS data use the Intrinsic Estimator (IE) to produce estimates of all age, period, and cohort effects simultaneously by position in the car and by alcohol involvement. Results Declines in MVC deaths by position in the car vary for men and women by age and cohort over time. Cohorts born before 1970 had higher risks than those born later. Analyses using proxy indicators of alcohol involvement found the highest risks for those aged 16-24. By period, these risks declined more rapidly than non- alcohol related traffic fatalities. Conclusion Changes in risk patterns are consistent with evidence regarding the contributions of new technologies and public policy efforts to reduce fatalities, but gains have not been shared evenly by sex or position in the car. Practical applications Greater attention is needed in reducing deaths among older drivers and pedestrians. Gender differences should be addressed in prevention efforts aimed at reducing MVCs due to alcohol involvement.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)47-57
Number of pages11
JournalJournal of Safety Research
Volume52
DOIs
StatePublished - 2015

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Keywords

  • Age-period-cohort analysis
  • Alcohol
  • Motor vehicle crashes

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality

Cite this

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title = "Age, period, and cohort effects in motor vehicle mortality in the United States, 1980-2010: The role of sex, alcohol involvement, and position in vehicle",
abstract = "Introduction Although substantive declines in motor vehicle fatalities in 1980-2010 have been observed, declines by position in the vehicle and alcohol involvement have not been well elucidated. Method Analyses of FARS data use the Intrinsic Estimator (IE) to produce estimates of all age, period, and cohort effects simultaneously by position in the car and by alcohol involvement. Results Declines in MVC deaths by position in the car vary for men and women by age and cohort over time. Cohorts born before 1970 had higher risks than those born later. Analyses using proxy indicators of alcohol involvement found the highest risks for those aged 16-24. By period, these risks declined more rapidly than non- alcohol related traffic fatalities. Conclusion Changes in risk patterns are consistent with evidence regarding the contributions of new technologies and public policy efforts to reduce fatalities, but gains have not been shared evenly by sex or position in the car. Practical applications Greater attention is needed in reducing deaths among older drivers and pedestrians. Gender differences should be addressed in prevention efforts aimed at reducing MVCs due to alcohol involvement.",
keywords = "Age-period-cohort analysis, Alcohol, Motor vehicle crashes",
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T1 - Age, period, and cohort effects in motor vehicle mortality in the United States, 1980-2010

T2 - The role of sex, alcohol involvement, and position in vehicle

AU - Macinko, James

AU - Silver, Diana

AU - Bae, Jin Yung

PY - 2015

Y1 - 2015

N2 - Introduction Although substantive declines in motor vehicle fatalities in 1980-2010 have been observed, declines by position in the vehicle and alcohol involvement have not been well elucidated. Method Analyses of FARS data use the Intrinsic Estimator (IE) to produce estimates of all age, period, and cohort effects simultaneously by position in the car and by alcohol involvement. Results Declines in MVC deaths by position in the car vary for men and women by age and cohort over time. Cohorts born before 1970 had higher risks than those born later. Analyses using proxy indicators of alcohol involvement found the highest risks for those aged 16-24. By period, these risks declined more rapidly than non- alcohol related traffic fatalities. Conclusion Changes in risk patterns are consistent with evidence regarding the contributions of new technologies and public policy efforts to reduce fatalities, but gains have not been shared evenly by sex or position in the car. Practical applications Greater attention is needed in reducing deaths among older drivers and pedestrians. Gender differences should be addressed in prevention efforts aimed at reducing MVCs due to alcohol involvement.

AB - Introduction Although substantive declines in motor vehicle fatalities in 1980-2010 have been observed, declines by position in the vehicle and alcohol involvement have not been well elucidated. Method Analyses of FARS data use the Intrinsic Estimator (IE) to produce estimates of all age, period, and cohort effects simultaneously by position in the car and by alcohol involvement. Results Declines in MVC deaths by position in the car vary for men and women by age and cohort over time. Cohorts born before 1970 had higher risks than those born later. Analyses using proxy indicators of alcohol involvement found the highest risks for those aged 16-24. By period, these risks declined more rapidly than non- alcohol related traffic fatalities. Conclusion Changes in risk patterns are consistent with evidence regarding the contributions of new technologies and public policy efforts to reduce fatalities, but gains have not been shared evenly by sex or position in the car. Practical applications Greater attention is needed in reducing deaths among older drivers and pedestrians. Gender differences should be addressed in prevention efforts aimed at reducing MVCs due to alcohol involvement.

KW - Age-period-cohort analysis

KW - Alcohol

KW - Motor vehicle crashes

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