A Mark in Time Saves Nein

Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, A. F.K. Organski

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

    Abstract

    A method for predicting political interactions and policy outcomes based on two political theorems is presented and illustrated with an examination of the decision to merge the two German currencies. Political perceptions and actions are anticipated by combining the substantive knowledge of area experts with the theoretical insights embedded in the median voter theorem and a monotonicity theorem that links expectations to probabilistic statements of action. The proposed model has proven accurate about 90 percent of the time. The proposed forecasting method identifies a sequential strategy that may have been followed by Chancellor Kohl in forging the coalition needed to merge successfully the two German currencies. Using comparative statics, the analysis suggests how subtle and sophisticated Chancellor Kohl had to be to succeed in getting the policy outcome he desired despite stiff opposition.

    Original languageEnglish (US)
    Pages (from-to)81-100
    Number of pages20
    JournalInternational Political Science Review
    Volume13
    Issue number1
    DOIs
    StatePublished - Jan 1992

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    ASJC Scopus subject areas

    • Sociology and Political Science
    • Political Science and International Relations

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