A comparative methodology for estimating the capacity of a freeway section

Kaan Ozbay, Eren Erman Ozguven

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Abstract

The random characteristics of the traffic flow make it essential to have a random component and therefore add a stochastic meaning to the deterministic parameters. This paper aims to improve the conventional deterministic approach to the freeway capacity by estimating parameters of the various probability distribution functions that are likely to represent the probabilistic nature of freeway traffic capacity. Firstly, Maximum Likelihood Estimation method is applied to estimate the capacity distribution function. Then, confidence intervals for the capacity distribution function are calculated using Bayesian statistics techniques that can address the difficult problem of censored data. Finally, a comparative analysis has been conducted between the estimations of deterministic and probabilistic models to come up with a conclusion regarding spatial and temporal characteristics of freeway capacity. The analysis results indicate that including stochasticity in the model estimation results in better representation of observed data and thus improve understanding of real-life situations.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publication10th International IEEE Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems, ITSC 2007
Pages1034-1039
Number of pages6
DOIs
StatePublished - 2007
Event10th International IEEE Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems, ITSC 2007 - Seattle, WA, United States
Duration: Sep 30 2007Oct 3 2007

Other

Other10th International IEEE Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems, ITSC 2007
CountryUnited States
CitySeattle, WA
Period9/30/0710/3/07

Fingerprint

Highway systems
Distribution functions
Maximum likelihood estimation
Probability distributions
Statistics

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Engineering(all)

Cite this

Ozbay, K., & Ozguven, E. E. (2007). A comparative methodology for estimating the capacity of a freeway section. In 10th International IEEE Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems, ITSC 2007 (pp. 1034-1039). [4357728] https://doi.org/10.1109/ITSC.2007.4357728

A comparative methodology for estimating the capacity of a freeway section. / Ozbay, Kaan; Ozguven, Eren Erman.

10th International IEEE Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems, ITSC 2007. 2007. p. 1034-1039 4357728.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Ozbay, K & Ozguven, EE 2007, A comparative methodology for estimating the capacity of a freeway section. in 10th International IEEE Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems, ITSC 2007., 4357728, pp. 1034-1039, 10th International IEEE Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems, ITSC 2007, Seattle, WA, United States, 9/30/07. https://doi.org/10.1109/ITSC.2007.4357728
Ozbay K, Ozguven EE. A comparative methodology for estimating the capacity of a freeway section. In 10th International IEEE Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems, ITSC 2007. 2007. p. 1034-1039. 4357728 https://doi.org/10.1109/ITSC.2007.4357728
Ozbay, Kaan ; Ozguven, Eren Erman. / A comparative methodology for estimating the capacity of a freeway section. 10th International IEEE Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems, ITSC 2007. 2007. pp. 1034-1039
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